Our partners at Tourism Industry Association of Canada have released their March snapshot of the State of Tourism in Canada.
These dashboard reports provide a monthly snapshot of recent global, regional and domestic tourism health and economic updates, and insights on the impact of COVID-19 on the travel and tourism industry’s path to recovery. Insights are derived from a review of myriad global and Canadian media sources, associations, consultancies, and expert opinion from the tourism industry and government. Key drivers taken into consideration include tourism channels such as source markets, airlines, accommodations, tourism businesses, tour operators, OTAs, and travellers.
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Also, please note, Cross Canada focus groups for current and former tourism employees will be held at a later date. Study results will be presented at Tourism HR Canada’s March Labour Market Forum.
]]>Canada’s Business Events Restart Recovery Framework
In follow up to our research webinar on December 10th, 2020 we are pleased to share our in-depth report on Canada’s Business Events Restart Recovery Framework. This document, specifically created for Team Canada business events partners provides an update on the current impact on the business events industry and a forward look at recovery and restart, including:
• Business Events: State of the industry – an update on the impacts of covid-19
• Insight from a global business events scan – summary findings from our recent research project where we heard from executive directors, planners, industry associations and Canadian partners that have informed how we prepare for a post COVID-19 resumption of events
• Canada’s recovery restart framework – an evidence-based approach to track early signals of the resumption of business events in order to support planning and our industry deliver the right activities at the right time.
View Report
2021 Research plan
Continuing our focus on providing detailed intelligence to our partners, our research plans for the upcoming year can be found here.
If you have any questions on our research projects, please contact us to learn more.
We thank you for your support and provision of data. We look forward to continuing our support of the industry through knowledge and research in 2021.
Destination Canada’s Business Events team is charged with growing Canada’s share of international business events by promoting the country’s unique meeting, convention, and incentive event possibilities. The Business Events team is the first point of contact for planners seeking inspiration, impartial insights, introductions and bid assistance for global events.
Our national partners at Tourism HR Canada will host a webinar on January 15th at 3PM Atlantic to share the latest workforce trends, what to anticipate for labour challenges over the next year, and recommendations on policies and programs to help the sector restart the workforce.
Register today for this complimentary session: https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_E_Jz7jJoT2SIBPRZZJaLtg
In comparison with the week of 25-31 August 2019, the industry reported the following:
- Occupancy: -45.2 per cent to 42.1 per cent
- Average daily rate (ADR): -25.9 per cent to C$128.83
- Revenue per available room (RevPAR): -59.4 per cent to C$54.26
Two provinces reached a 50 per cent occupancy level: Prince Edward Island (55.8 per cent) and British Columbia (53.5 per cent).
Ottawa (43.4 per cent) was the only major market at or above the 40 per cent mark.
The lowest occupancy among provinces was reported in Quebec (32.4 per cent). At the market level, the lowest occupancy was reported in Montreal (22.0 per cent).
Additional Performance Data
STR’s world-leading hotel performance sample comprises 68,000 properties and 9.1 million rooms around the globe. Members of the media should refer to the contacts listed below for additional data requests.
About STR
STR provides premium data benchmarking, analytics and marketplace insights for global hospitality sectors. Founded in 1985, STR maintains a presence in 15 countries with a corporate North American headquarters in Hendersonville, Tennessee, an international headquarters in London, and an Asia Pacific headquarters in Singapore. STR was acquired in October 2019 by CoStar Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSGP), the leading provider of commercial real estate information, analytics and online marketplaces. For more information, please visit str.com and www.costargroup.com.
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Real Time Insights: RevPAR Outlooks For Mar/2Q Remain In A Free Fall; Closures & Layoffs Accelerating (Cleveland Research)
Key Points
- Hotel demand continues to fall, with anticipated RevPAR declines accelerating in the last few days. What began with Group cancels and corporate travel bans has broadened to more widespread canceling of upcoming leisure/Spring Break trips
- March and April RevPAR slipping by the day amongst revenue managers as more cities look on a path for lock-downs and close restaurants/bars, now cutting into the relatively more durable base leisure demand. Similar to prior RevPAR contractions, we are seeing Urban Lux and Upper Upscale fall by a larger magnitude while Suburban and Interstate (both more levered to drive markets) is holding up relatively better; more and more hotels considering shutting down
- Tremendous amount of stress on the hotel system as it relates to near term cash flow, layoffs, potential for hotel closures, and the implications for relationships between brands, owners, and management companies. Most expect hotel closures, layoffs and point to a need for government assistance for furloughed employees. Lenders are likely to work with owners in the next 3-6 months.
- Key focus right now in the industry is ADR in the midst of occupancy declines, with most attempting to live with lower occupancy and not make same mistakes as last time, which is easier said than done. In the last 2 contractions of following 9/11 and the financial crisis, TTM ADR declines bottomed at down 4% and 10% respectively and took 1-1.5 years to get there. As for the rate recovery, it took 5-6 years on an inflation adjusted basis to get rate back to the prior peak. Rate takes longer than occ to recover.
Conclusion
A week ago, we noted that forecasting RevPAR for us and revenue managers/industry participants was immensely challenging as it is tied to a moving target of virus trajectory and the government’s restrictions. Since that time, we have seen the deterioration in demand accelerate as the U.S. now could be headed down the path of China, S. Korea, and Italy as it relates to containment efforts. All three countries saw occupancy in the 10-15% range as a result, which could be the future for the U.S. in heading into 2H March and early April, although it is likely to impact different market types by different magnitudes. Both cruise vacations and Vegas travel has been largely put on hold/shut down for the next month, and hotel industry participants see it as increasingly likely that at least a portion of the hotel industry is headed this way as owners are now more widely considering closures. The speed and depth of the current RevPAR contraction is ahead of both 9/11 and 08/09 and Mar/April RevPAR declines are likely to meaningfully exceed the Sep 2001 decline of 23% and the 15-20% declines seen in the first nine months of 2009. Some in the industry believe 2H Mar and April could be down 50% or more. Stocks appear to be factoring in a significant amount of pressure, with brands down 30% in the last wk and 45% in the last month. REIT’s are down 50% in the last wk and 65% in the last month.
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